Quant Backtest Report

Generated 2026-06-18 22:17:38 · research/paper mode only · no live orders
Best Sharpe1.53KODEX 200 / volatility_adjusted_momentum
Average CAGR3.90%
Total Trades496
Strategies Tested70

Beginner Reading Guide

이 리포트는 과거 데이터로 “이 규칙대로만 매매했다면 어땠을까”를 계산한 것입니다. 미래 수익 보장이 아니라 전략을 걸러내는 연구 도구로 봐야 합니다.

CAGR

연평균 수익률입니다. CAGR 75%는 매년 75%가 확정이라는 뜻이 아니라, 테스트 전체 수익을 연 단위 평균으로 환산한 값입니다.

MDD

최대 낙폭입니다. MDD -41%는 중간에 계좌가 고점 대비 41%까지 빠진 적이 있다는 뜻입니다. 초보자에게는 CAGR보다 MDD가 더 중요합니다.

Sharpe

변동성 대비 수익입니다. 숫자가 높을수록 흔들림 대비 성과가 좋았다는 뜻입니다. 대략 1 이상이면 볼 만하지만, 표본과 비용 가정을 같이 봐야 합니다.

Confidence

신뢰도 게이트입니다. 신호가 약하면 매수를 막거나 비중을 줄입니다. 수익률은 낮아질 수 있지만, 손실 폭과 무리한 진입을 줄이는 목적입니다.

현재 상위 결과 해석

KODEX 200 / volatility_adjusted_momentum / confidence off: CAGR 36.28%, MDD -20.61%, Sharpe 1.53. 10,000,000원 시작 기준 최종 35,472,186원입니다.

KODEX 200 / buy_and_hold / confidence off: CAGR 43.52%, MDD -21.58%, Sharpe 1.51. 10,000,000원 시작 기준 최종 43,841,912원입니다.

KODEX 200 / buy_and_hold / confidence on: CAGR 43.52%, MDD -21.58%, Sharpe 1.51. 10,000,000원 시작 기준 최종 43,841,912원입니다.

레버리지·인버스·2배·3배 상품은 투자 원칙상 후보에서 제외합니다. 실거래 후보는 “수익률이 제일 큰 것”이 아니라 “최대 낙폭, 위험 대비 점수, 거래 수, 손실 구간을 감당할 수 있는 것”부터 골라야 합니다.

Strategy Comparison

AssetSymbolStrategyConfidenceCAGRTotal ReturnMDDSharpeWin RateTradesEnding EquityRejected
KODEX 200069500volatility_adjusted_momentumoff36.28%254.72%-20.61%1.5366.67%335,472,1860
KODEX 200069500buy_and_holdoff43.52%338.42%-21.58%1.51100.00%143,841,9120
KODEX 200069500buy_and_holdon43.52%338.42%-21.58%1.51100.00%143,841,9120
KODEX 200069500volatility_adjusted_momentumon28.32%177.30%-17.40%1.4966.67%327,729,9710
KODEX 200069500moving_average_trendon23.14%134.28%-17.91%1.2846.67%1523,428,4650
KODEX 200069500moving_average_trendoff28.95%182.93%-21.45%1.2746.67%1528,292,5810
KODEX 200069500breakout_trendon11.66%57.00%-14.68%1.0555.56%915,699,8930
QQQQQQrelative_strengthon6.75%29.73%-6.45%1.0266.67%1212,972,895100
QQQQQQmoving_average_trendon9.16%41.79%-8.51%0.9950.00%1214,179,2280
AAPLAAPLmoving_average_trendon9.67%44.45%-12.89%0.9646.15%1314,444,8890
KODEX 200069500breakout_trendoff13.90%70.28%-20.27%0.9162.50%817,027,5900
QQQQQQdual_momentumon6.55%28.74%-14.60%0.8452.00%2512,873,6670
SPYSPYpullback_in_uptrendon2.32%9.55%-4.78%0.7672.73%1110,955,1080
TSLATSLAbreakout_trendon13.13%63.50%-22.63%0.7150.00%816,349,5680
AAPLAAPLrelative_strengthon5.40%23.32%-11.71%0.6950.00%1412,332,16921
KODEX 200069500pullback_in_uptrendoff8.72%40.79%-13.62%0.6364.52%3114,079,0110
SPYSPYmoving_average_trendon2.67%11.06%-8.19%0.4435.00%2011,106,4570
KODEX 200069500pullback_in_uptrendon4.12%17.96%-13.24%0.3654.55%3311,796,1280
AAPLAAPLbreakout_trendon2.35%9.70%-10.09%0.3645.45%1110,970,1020
QQQQQQvolatility_adjusted_momentumon2.46%10.16%-12.89%0.3360.00%511,016,4990
QQQQQQpullback_in_uptrendon1.72%7.02%-8.24%0.3366.67%2110,701,8370
TSLATSLAdual_momentumon0.48%1.91%-45.03%0.1435.29%1710,191,4030
SPYSPYbreakout_trendon0.40%1.59%-4.85%0.1340.00%1010,159,1080
TSLATSLAmoving_average_trendon-0.68%-2.70%-32.00%0.1027.78%189,730,3840
SPYSPYvolatility_adjusted_momentumon-0.02%-0.07%-9.23%0.0250.00%49,993,1460
SPYSPYbuy_and_holdoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
SPYSPYmoving_average_trendoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
SPYSPYrelative_strengthoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
SPYSPYdual_momentumoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
SPYSPYbreakout_trendoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
SPYSPYpullback_in_uptrendoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
SPYSPYvolatility_adjusted_momentumoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
SPYSPYbuy_and_holdon0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
SPYSPYrelative_strengthon0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
SPYSPYdual_momentumon0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
QQQQQQbuy_and_holdoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
QQQQQQmoving_average_trendoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
QQQQQQrelative_strengthoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
QQQQQQdual_momentumoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
QQQQQQbreakout_trendoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
QQQQQQpullback_in_uptrendoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
QQQQQQvolatility_adjusted_momentumoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
QQQQQQbuy_and_holdon0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
TSLATSLAbuy_and_holdoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
TSLATSLAmoving_average_trendoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
TSLATSLArelative_strengthoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
TSLATSLAdual_momentumoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
TSLATSLAbreakout_trendoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
TSLATSLApullback_in_uptrendoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
TSLATSLAvolatility_adjusted_momentumoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
TSLATSLAbuy_and_holdon0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
AAPLAAPLbuy_and_holdoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
AAPLAAPLmoving_average_trendoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
AAPLAAPLrelative_strengthoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
AAPLAAPLdual_momentumoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
AAPLAAPLbreakout_trendoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
AAPLAAPLpullback_in_uptrendoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
AAPLAAPLvolatility_adjusted_momentumoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
AAPLAAPLbuy_and_holdon0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
KODEX 200069500relative_strengthoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
KODEX 200069500dual_momentumoff0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
KODEX 200069500relative_strengthon0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
KODEX 200069500dual_momentumon0.00%0.00%0.00%0.000.00%010,000,0000
TSLATSLArelative_strengthon-2.75%-10.50%-25.68%-0.0425.00%208,949,66914
AAPLAAPLdual_momentumon-0.89%-3.51%-14.71%-0.0830.77%269,649,2310
QQQQQQbreakout_trendon-0.90%-3.54%-7.24%-0.1936.36%119,646,2030
AAPLAAPLvolatility_adjusted_momentumon-2.50%-9.60%-20.43%-0.2820.00%59,040,1690
AAPLAAPLpullback_in_uptrendon-2.57%-9.85%-14.77%-0.3454.55%339,015,1530
TSLATSLAvolatility_adjusted_momentumon-7.43%-26.48%-33.17%-0.420.00%37,352,2110
TSLATSLApullback_in_uptrendon-14.21%-45.69%-48.32%-0.5744.87%785,431,4930

Data Sources

AssetSymbolSourceBarsCache PathError
SPYSPYcache999var/data/toss/SPY-1d.csv
QQQQQQcache999var/data/toss/QQQ-1d.csv
TSLATSLAcache999var/data/toss/TSLA-1d.csv
AAPLAAPLcache999var/data/toss/AAPL-1d.csv
KODEX 200069500cache999var/data/toss/069500-1d.csv

Latest Trades

AssetStrategyEntryExitQtyEntry PriceExit PricePnLConfidence
KODEX 200volatility_adjusted_momentum2023-07-212023-08-1730732,548.2731,355.31-371,04967.57%
KODEX 200volatility_adjusted_momentum2024-03-082024-08-0227634,815.4035,478.25178,05167.07%
KODEX 200volatility_adjusted_momentum2025-06-162026-06-1725039,123.55141,914.0125,679,87567.63%
KODEX 200buy_and_hold2022-05-182026-06-1730932,306.14141,914.0133,846,90490.00%
KODEX 200buy_and_hold2022-05-182026-06-1730932,306.14141,914.0133,846,90490.00%
KODEX 200volatility_adjusted_momentum2023-07-212023-08-1721132,548.2731,355.31-255,02167.57%
KODEX 200volatility_adjusted_momentum2024-03-082024-08-0218934,815.4035,478.25121,92767.07%
KODEX 200volatility_adjusted_momentum2025-06-162026-06-1717439,123.55141,914.0117,873,19367.63%
KODEX 200moving_average_trend2024-06-072024-07-2517135,972.9836,120.9322,21268.00%
KODEX 200moving_average_trend2025-01-232025-02-0318832,781.3831,730.13-200,61968.00%
KODEX 200moving_average_trend2025-02-062025-03-3118332,865.4233,032.4827,54868.00%
KODEX 200moving_average_trend2025-05-162026-03-3117334,764.3775,060.456,964,72968.00%
KODEX 200moving_average_trend2026-04-072026-06-1713282,447.20141,914.017,840,25268.00%
KODEX 200moving_average_trend2024-06-122024-07-2523336,006.9936,120.9322,33968.00%
KODEX 200moving_average_trend2025-01-232025-02-0325732,781.3831,730.13-274,25068.00%
KODEX 200moving_average_trend2025-02-062025-03-3124832,865.4233,032.4837,33368.00%
KODEX 200moving_average_trend2025-05-162026-03-3123534,764.3775,060.459,460,75968.00%
KODEX 200moving_average_trend2026-04-102026-06-1719988,309.13141,914.0110,653,25068.00%
KODEX 200breakout_trend2025-02-142025-02-2816833,553.7732,949.52-104,28263.31%
KODEX 200breakout_trend2025-05-282025-08-0118935,371.6841,786.101,208,37667.91%
KODEX 200breakout_trend2025-09-102025-11-1417344,835.4156,170.901,956,18268.83%
KODEX 200breakout_trend2026-01-062026-03-0412365,878.9275,528.221,182,21865.63%
KODEX 200breakout_trend2026-04-232026-06-088397,970.96119,500.221,781,96963.61%
QQQrelative_strength2024-11-292025-01-2711712509.99513.9543,34760.24%
QQQrelative_strength2025-02-122025-02-2711438528.56500.02-329,34960.42%
QQQrelative_strength2025-05-222025-08-2912702514.26570.11705,88562.70%
QQQrelative_strength2025-10-022025-12-1210224606.03613.3171,29960.29%
QQQrelative_strength2026-04-242026-06-179945664.21734.39694,29561.51%
QQQmoving_average_trend2025-11-262025-12-1515458614.58610.23-71,84168.00%
QQQmoving_average_trend2025-12-192026-01-0215302617.36612.81-74,23868.00%
QQQmoving_average_trend2026-01-062026-01-2015057623.73607.76-245,12268.00%
QQQmoving_average_trend2026-01-222026-02-0314840621.07616.21-76,67568.00%
QQQmoving_average_trend2026-04-222026-06-1713975655.44734.391,098,26568.00%
AAPLmoving_average_trend2024-11-292025-01-1035622237.45236.73-29,76168.00%
AAPLmoving_average_trend2025-07-102025-08-0139689212.52202.28-410,32668.00%
AAPLmoving_average_trend2025-08-062026-01-0538173213.36267.132,047,45468.00%
AAPLmoving_average_trend2026-02-262026-02-2735061273.09264.05-321,53068.00%
AAPLmoving_average_trend2026-04-272026-06-1734908267.74299.331,097,39568.00%
KODEX 200breakout_trend2024-06-192024-07-1925637,103.5437,273.3538,70163.59%
KODEX 200breakout_trend2025-05-282025-08-0127035,371.6841,786.101,726,25267.91%
KODEX 200breakout_trend2025-09-102025-11-1425144,835.4156,170.902,838,16068.83%
KODEX 200breakout_trend2026-01-062026-03-0421465,878.9275,528.222,056,86765.63%
KODEX 200breakout_trend2026-05-062026-06-08142113,326.63119,500.22868,16567.84%
QQQdual_momentum2025-06-162025-06-1711709534.56528.82-70,32562.00%
QQQdual_momentum2025-06-232026-02-0411692531.92605.45856,18962.00%
QQQdual_momentum2026-02-252026-02-2610840616.99608.94-90,59562.00%
QQQdual_momentum2026-03-022026-03-1910908608.39592.72-174,16762.00%
QQQdual_momentum2026-04-152026-06-1710254637.72734.39987,52962.00%
SPYpullback_in_uptrend2024-08-082024-08-1315755530.92541.77166,73274.11%
SPYpullback_in_uptrend2024-09-062024-09-1213958540.63558.81249,86070.27%
SPYpullback_in_uptrend2025-01-102025-01-1513580580.78592.48154,90970.88%
SPYpullback_in_uptrend2025-11-202025-11-2512761652.86674.68274,22072.14%
SPYpullback_in_uptrend2026-06-102026-06-1511355725.79754.45321,14970.99%
TSLAbreakout_trend2024-10-252024-12-3140336269.32403.645,409,52878.31%
TSLAbreakout_trend2025-05-142025-06-0427670347.85331.88-446,47862.99%
TSLAbreakout_trend2025-09-112025-10-1027584368.99413.281,215,96464.98%
TSLAbreakout_trend2025-12-152025-12-2925328475.55459.41-414,54867.52%
TSLAbreakout_trend2026-05-112026-06-0124567445.22415.67-731,07265.61%
AAPLrelative_strength2025-08-132026-01-0929082233.45259.24746,36163.37%
AAPLrelative_strength2026-02-052026-02-0625100276.05277.9845,02962.41%
AAPLrelative_strength2026-04-152026-04-1631118266.56263.27-106,62766.74%
AAPLrelative_strength2026-04-172026-04-2733367270.37267.48-100,85769.35%
AAPLrelative_strength2026-05-082026-06-1725438293.47299.33145,35164.50%
KODEX 200pullback_in_uptrend2026-03-232026-04-0715280,708.3382,364.80245,52390.00%
KODEX 200pullback_in_uptrend2026-05-152026-05-18106117,258.60117,781.0849,14074.26%
KODEX 200pullback_in_uptrend2026-05-202026-05-21110113,396.67122,998.471,049,43380.45%
KODEX 200pullback_in_uptrend2026-06-052026-06-09103131,095.51130,064.94-112,84876.90%
KODEX 200pullback_in_uptrend2026-06-102026-06-12109123,856.90129,205.37575,94187.12%
SPYmoving_average_trend2026-01-222026-02-0511344689.32677.28-140,46168.00%
SPYmoving_average_trend2026-02-062026-02-1211171690.97680.93-115,91568.00%
SPYmoving_average_trend2026-02-202026-02-2311069689.77682.05-89,29368.00%
SPYmoving_average_trend2026-02-252026-02-2710915693.50685.65-89,42068.00%
SPYmoving_average_trend2026-04-242026-06-1710506714.30751.69388,94468.00%
KODEX 200pullback_in_uptrend2026-03-242026-04-0713983,179.5782,364.80-118,97886.25%
KODEX 200pullback_in_uptrend2026-05-152026-05-1883117,258.60117,781.0838,47874.26%
KODEX 200pullback_in_uptrend2026-05-192026-05-2098114,372.16113,283.33-112,25678.88%
KODEX 200pullback_in_uptrend2026-06-052026-06-0980131,095.51130,064.94-87,64976.90%
KODEX 200pullback_in_uptrend2026-06-102026-06-1291123,856.90129,205.37480,83287.12%
AAPLbreakout_trend2025-08-072025-09-1039455220.14226.68253,42971.73%
AAPLbreakout_trend2025-09-222025-10-1039043256.21245.15-436,62875.73%
AAPLbreakout_trend2025-10-202025-11-1732390262.37267.33156,16871.60%
AAPLbreakout_trend2025-12-022025-12-1521894286.33273.97-273,61262.99%
AAPLbreakout_trend2026-05-062026-06-0825216287.65301.39342,55467.29%
QQQvolatility_adjusted_momentum2023-05-052023-09-2621498323.05354.03662,23467.78%
QQQvolatility_adjusted_momentum2024-01-292024-08-0217763428.36448.53354,14668.56%
QQQvolatility_adjusted_momentum2024-12-102025-02-2714919520.86500.02-314,64868.24%
QQQvolatility_adjusted_momentum2025-08-132026-02-0414475580.63605.45354,84471.45%
QQQvolatility_adjusted_momentum2026-05-282026-06-1710696735.97734.39-20,77668.52%
QQQpullback_in_uptrend2025-02-282025-03-0316611508.42496.80-197,18973.62%
QQQpullback_in_uptrend2025-11-072025-11-1012181610.04622.92153,01870.19%
QQQpullback_in_uptrend2025-11-132025-11-2612566608.70613.9662,22370.61%
QQQpullback_in_uptrend2025-12-172025-12-1912832600.71616.74201,75670.67%
QQQpullback_in_uptrend2026-06-052026-06-1511996705.41743.63453,97273.02%
TSLAdual_momentum2025-04-092025-05-1418125272.34347.511,359,30862.00%
TSLAdual_momentum2025-05-152025-05-2116567342.99334.45-144,23162.00%
TSLAdual_momentum2025-05-272025-06-0315428363.07344.10-295,37962.00%
TSLAdual_momentum2025-08-252025-11-2115680346.77390.89688,75562.00%
TSLAdual_momentum2025-11-242026-03-1313911417.99391.00-378,10162.00%
SPYbreakout_trend2024-01-192024-04-0414506482.67512.81433,52468.28%
SPYbreakout_trend2024-09-192024-10-3113019571.27568.36-41,58368.79%
SPYbreakout_trend2024-11-062024-12-1812686591.34585.99-71,57069.17%
SPYbreakout_trend2025-06-272025-08-019895615.22621.4158,19263.84%
SPYbreakout_trend2025-09-182025-10-1010352662.59652.69-105,83966.72%
TSLAmoving_average_trend2025-08-222025-11-1320896340.18401.791,283,18468.00%
TSLAmoving_average_trend2025-11-282025-12-0118598430.39429.92-12,55668.00%
TSLAmoving_average_trend2025-12-172026-01-0217097467.49437.85-510,54468.00%
TSLAmoving_average_trend2026-01-222026-01-2616977449.58434.98-251,59568.00%
TSLAmoving_average_trend2026-05-112026-06-0516741445.22390.80-914,28368.00%
SPYvolatility_adjusted_momentum2023-07-182023-09-2116513454.42431.17-387,36870.02%
SPYvolatility_adjusted_momentum2024-01-292024-08-0513235491.52517.12335,46967.08%
SPYvolatility_adjusted_momentum2024-12-092025-02-2711156604.98584.76-228,89067.16%
SPYvolatility_adjusted_momentum2025-08-132026-03-0610863645.21672.04287,81968.88%
TSLArelative_strength2025-07-112025-07-2420972313.67305.15-181,86973.44%
TSLArelative_strength2025-07-282025-07-2911816325.75321.04-57,59060.04%
TSLArelative_strength2025-08-292025-09-0420686334.04338.3685,94276.26%
TSLArelative_strength2025-09-112025-12-3016348368.99454.201,389,27471.31%
TSLArelative_strength2026-02-112026-02-1211849428.48416.86-140,18762.34%
AAPLdual_momentum2026-05-122026-05-1318426294.95298.7266,77262.00%
AAPLdual_momentum2026-05-152026-05-1818210300.38297.69-51,67862.00%
AAPLdual_momentum2026-05-192026-05-2618187299.12308.18161,90562.00%
AAPLdual_momentum2026-05-272026-06-0117774311.01306.16-88,89962.00%
AAPLdual_momentum2026-06-052026-06-0917813307.49290.40-306,99262.00%
QQQbreakout_trend2024-11-062024-11-1513734505.83496.32-134,03367.52%
QQQbreakout_trend2024-12-112024-12-1811474530.18516.21-163,29064.43%
QQQbreakout_trend2025-06-272025-08-0110861548.36553.6053,89564.33%
QQQbreakout_trend2025-09-122025-10-109959586.95589.2119,49363.75%
QQQbreakout_trend2025-10-282025-11-069552633.24611.36-211,84464.54%
AAPLvolatility_adjusted_momentum2023-04-272023-09-0740617168.49177.47361,01567.38%
AAPLvolatility_adjusted_momentum2024-07-102024-11-1131401233.10224.12-285,45668.27%
AAPLvolatility_adjusted_momentum2024-12-112025-01-1627961246.61228.15-519,55667.40%
AAPLvolatility_adjusted_momentum2025-09-292026-01-2026376254.56246.58-213,74768.14%
AAPLvolatility_adjusted_momentum2026-05-282026-06-1721126312.67299.33-284,89868.32%
AAPLpullback_in_uptrend2026-02-122026-02-1330009261.86255.65-190,15473.79%
AAPLpullback_in_uptrend2026-02-172026-02-1827810264.01264.222,05272.24%
AAPLpullback_in_uptrend2026-02-202026-02-2327298264.71266.0532,80171.74%
AAPLpullback_in_uptrend2026-02-272026-03-0427676264.31262.39-56,86272.02%
AAPLpullback_in_uptrend2026-06-082026-06-1723066301.69299.33-57,90070.67%
TSLAvolatility_adjusted_momentum2023-07-142023-10-1824319281.52242.56-950,46767.39%
TSLAvolatility_adjusted_momentum2024-12-062025-02-2516644389.41302.65-1,446,65268.66%
TSLAvolatility_adjusted_momentum2025-10-132026-01-2912084436.12416.35-241,37167.75%
TSLApullback_in_uptrend2026-05-152026-05-1811328422.45409.79-145,80372.34%
TSLApullback_in_uptrend2026-05-202026-05-2111949417.47417.64-43574.58%
TSLApullback_in_uptrend2026-05-222026-05-2610368426.22433.3771,88770.65%
TSLApullback_in_uptrend2026-06-012026-06-0512344416.09390.80-314,51175.20%
TSLApullback_in_uptrend2026-06-152026-06-1612076411.36404.46-85,74176.00%